Best bets for UFC 246: Conor McGregor vs. Cowboy Cerrone
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
In UFC action alone, Donald Cerrone and Conor McGregor have scored 32 combined knockdowns (the numbers below include WEC action for Cerrone). They are the No. 1- and No. 6-ranked fighters all time by that metric. So when we say the UFC is kicking off 2020 with a bang, it's because of this potential for striking fireworks.
Early betting lines opened McGregor as a clear favorite, and the market continues to support him, pushing his price now well over the -300 mark. We have their performance numbers, so let's see if they lead us to take a side.
Saturday's early prelims from Las Vegas begin at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET. The main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, as of Wednesday.
Welterweight main event: Conor McGregor (-330) vs. Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone (+260)
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; height: 811px; clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); color: rgb(29, 30, 31); font-size: 16px;">Tale Of The Tape
<tbody>
</tbody></aside>
Each fighter has put in striking performances of the highest caliber, and the offensive stats prove it. Without looking deeper, we might call the standup game a wash. And if we shift focus away from striking, there's only one big finding to notice: Cowboy's submission game has been every bit as successful as his standup, making him one of the best dual finishing threats in the sport. So why such steep odds for McGregor?
Some answers might lie in the details of the performance metrics. While Cerrone has a crafty veteran's submission game, he lacks offensive wrestling. He attempts below-average takedowns and lands them with mediocre success. McGregor was saved from facing strong wrestlers most of his career, until the issue boiled over with the matchup against Khabib Nurmagomedov. In that fight, McGregor had no answer for relentless wrestling pressure. But the skills that enabled this mismatch are not the same grappling skills that Cerrone possesses. It's likely that McGregor will be able to evade any takedown attempts (if they come) and keep this fight standing.
This means we need to look more closely at the striking difference. Both fighters know how to find the chin of an opponent. But while both are accurate power strikers from a distance, McGregor is far superior in this area. McGregor's 43% power head-strike accuracy is among the best in the UFC. And combined with Cerrone's below-average head-strike defense, it's likely that McGregor will find his target frequently over a five-round fight. This means that Cowboy will not only have to outland a precise counter-striker, he'll have to remain standing while doing so.
In their past five years of MMA action, McGregor is just 2-2, while Cerrone is 8-5. What's important about this staggering difference in activity is the amount of cumulative damage that Cerrone has absorbed over that time. While Cerrone's offensive strengths make him competitive against nearly anyone across two divisions, his defense is a liability. And against a skilled, technical striker, it makes this matchup riskier at this point in his career.
E+ recommends: ML lean on McGregor.
Other fight card value
Women's flyweight: Maycee Barber (-1000) vs. Roxanne Modaferri (+650)
One of the biggest favorites on the card is undoubtedly Barber. The undefeated rising star has finished all three UFC opponents by strikes, and stats for her matchup with Modaferri hint at another striking finish. While Modaferri is one of the more seasoned grapplers in the division, her standup game is a work in progress.
On paper, Barber has excellent power-striking accuracy, just barely behind that of McGregor, and Modaferri has the worst head-strike defense on the card. Barber also holds a 16-year youth advantage. These factors all bode well for Barber to extend her win streak, which should come from a TKO after stuffing some early takedowns.
E+ recommends: Make Barber a parlay addition or play her TKO prop at a much more affordable price.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
In UFC action alone, Donald Cerrone and Conor McGregor have scored 32 combined knockdowns (the numbers below include WEC action for Cerrone). They are the No. 1- and No. 6-ranked fighters all time by that metric. So when we say the UFC is kicking off 2020 with a bang, it's because of this potential for striking fireworks.
Early betting lines opened McGregor as a clear favorite, and the market continues to support him, pushing his price now well over the -300 mark. We have their performance numbers, so let's see if they lead us to take a side.
Saturday's early prelims from Las Vegas begin at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET. The main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, as of Wednesday.
Welterweight main event: Conor McGregor (-330) vs. Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone (+260)
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Roboto, Arial, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, sans-serif; height: 811px; clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); color: rgb(29, 30, 31); font-size: 16px;">Tale Of The Tape
| DONALD CERRONE | CONOR MCGREGOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Last Fight Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Current Age | 36 | 31 |
| Height | 73 | 69 |
| Reach | 73 | 74 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Analyzed Minutes | 422 | 99 |
| Standup striking offense | ||
| Total Knockdown Ratio (Scored : Received) | 25:8 | 12:0 |
| Distance Knockdown Rate | 5.7% | 5.5% |
| Head Jab Accuracy | 31% | 28% |
| Head Power Accuracy | 29% | 43% |
| Total Standup Strike Ratio | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Striking defense | ||
| Total Head Strike Defense | 65% | 69% |
| Distance Knockdown Defense ("Chin") | 99% | 100% |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch | 0.27 | 0.11 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 36% | 63% |
| Advances per Takedown/Top Control | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Opponent Takedown Attempts | 116 | 30 |
| Takedown Defense | 73% | 70% |
| Share of Total Ground Time in Control | 56% | 41% |
| Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground | 0.55 | 0.00 |
<tbody>
</tbody>
Each fighter has put in striking performances of the highest caliber, and the offensive stats prove it. Without looking deeper, we might call the standup game a wash. And if we shift focus away from striking, there's only one big finding to notice: Cowboy's submission game has been every bit as successful as his standup, making him one of the best dual finishing threats in the sport. So why such steep odds for McGregor?
Some answers might lie in the details of the performance metrics. While Cerrone has a crafty veteran's submission game, he lacks offensive wrestling. He attempts below-average takedowns and lands them with mediocre success. McGregor was saved from facing strong wrestlers most of his career, until the issue boiled over with the matchup against Khabib Nurmagomedov. In that fight, McGregor had no answer for relentless wrestling pressure. But the skills that enabled this mismatch are not the same grappling skills that Cerrone possesses. It's likely that McGregor will be able to evade any takedown attempts (if they come) and keep this fight standing.
This means we need to look more closely at the striking difference. Both fighters know how to find the chin of an opponent. But while both are accurate power strikers from a distance, McGregor is far superior in this area. McGregor's 43% power head-strike accuracy is among the best in the UFC. And combined with Cerrone's below-average head-strike defense, it's likely that McGregor will find his target frequently over a five-round fight. This means that Cowboy will not only have to outland a precise counter-striker, he'll have to remain standing while doing so.
In their past five years of MMA action, McGregor is just 2-2, while Cerrone is 8-5. What's important about this staggering difference in activity is the amount of cumulative damage that Cerrone has absorbed over that time. While Cerrone's offensive strengths make him competitive against nearly anyone across two divisions, his defense is a liability. And against a skilled, technical striker, it makes this matchup riskier at this point in his career.
E+ recommends: ML lean on McGregor.
Other fight card value
Women's flyweight: Maycee Barber (-1000) vs. Roxanne Modaferri (+650)
One of the biggest favorites on the card is undoubtedly Barber. The undefeated rising star has finished all three UFC opponents by strikes, and stats for her matchup with Modaferri hint at another striking finish. While Modaferri is one of the more seasoned grapplers in the division, her standup game is a work in progress.
On paper, Barber has excellent power-striking accuracy, just barely behind that of McGregor, and Modaferri has the worst head-strike defense on the card. Barber also holds a 16-year youth advantage. These factors all bode well for Barber to extend her win streak, which should come from a TKO after stuffing some early takedowns.
E+ recommends: Make Barber a parlay addition or play her TKO prop at a much more affordable price.
